CISAC releases a study on the economic impact of Generative AI in the music and audiovisual industries
4 December 2024
CISAC, the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, has commissioned consulting firm PMP Strategy to evaluate the economic impact of Generative AI (Gen AI) in creative industries by 2028. Published in November 2024, the study shows that copyrighted works are driving value for AI providers while creators are being left out of the growth.
Divided in two sections, music and audiovisual, the study addresses 3 main questions: What will be the market size of AI-generated outputs in 5 years? What will be the associated loss of revenue for creators by 2028? And what will be the revenues of Generative AI tools/services providers by 2028?
The market for AI-generated audiovisual outputs is expected to be worth around €48 billion in 2028, driven largely by automated video generation for user-generated content on social media. The study finds that Gen AI outputs will also gradually replace some lower budget productions for TV and SVOD platforms, with a more limited market saturation.
The widespread use of Gen AI tools throughout the production process of audiovisual works could put over 20% of creators’ revenue at risk by 2028. This would represent a cumulative loss of €12 billion over the next 5 years compared to a no Gen AI situation. As producers use new tools to increase efficiency and reduce costs, the impact will be especially significant for translators and adaptors (-56% compared to a no Gen AI situation), as well as for screenwriters (-20%) and directors (-15%).
Generative AI providers’ revenues in the audiovisual sector will follow the same trend as in other creative industries such as music and could almost double every year from 2023 to 2028, reaching approximately €5.3 billion in 2028, rising from an estimated €200 million in 2023.
The study identifies four main Gen AI use cases in the audiovisual field:
- “Generation of complete audiovisual outputs – Gen AI tools support content creators for the generation of complete videos for social networks and AVOD platforms. AI-generated outputs are even replacing (with more limited penetration) certain audiovisual creations for TV or SVOD platforms – children’s cartoons, commercials, …
- Dubbing and subtitling automation – The improvement of Gen AI tools in this field allows for better translations and adaptations, with outputs increasingly closer to human work and at a decreasing cost, fostering their widespread adoption.
- AI assistance in the directing process – The use of Gen AI tools to automate directing tasks is becoming widespread, fostered by producers’ willingness to gain efficiency and reduce costs.
- Automated screenwriting – Similarly, Gen AI screenwriting assistance tools become more efficient, supporting authors in their work but also pushing producers to reduce the budget spend for screenwriting.”
The study concludes that under the current regulatory framework, creators will not benefit from the Gen AI revolution but will actually suffer losses on two fronts. On the one hand, they will lose revenue due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; on the other hand, their revenue stream will be replaced due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works.
To go further:
Study: https://members.cisac.org/CisacPortal/cisacDownloadFileSearch.do?docId=47661&lang=en
Executive summary: https://members.cisac.org/CisacPortal/cisacDownloadFileSearch.do?docId=47660&lang=en